Weekend Spread: Week 1

Week 0 Standings

Bobby: 0-2

Ty: 1-1

Boatin’ Blake: 2-0

Week Zero was perfectly balanced: one person went undefeated, one split and one went winless. With the first full week of the college football season on the horizon, the real show begins.

New to this season? The Wildcard pick, where everyone must pick one spread that hasn’t been selected for everyone. Other than that, no holds barred. Let’s get to the picks!

The Wildcard

Bobby: Duke v. Alabama

Only up from here I guess? Let’s look at what we learned.

  1. NEVER trust the Pac-12
  2. Any Florida team will be wildly erratic
  3. Hawaii on island is worth the hype.

Well, time to move on to bigger and hopefully brighter things.

I can’t believe I’m picking a team because Daniel Jones left them, but here we are. Well, of course Alabama has a lot more going for them in this one than one mediocre quarterback, but Duke is about to be absolutely smashed in Atlanta. This one is going to be a bloodbath. Alabama, -35

Ty: Valued customers, let me start this week in congratulating you for a healthy Week 0 earnings. We successfully established a solid benchmark at 1-1. 

This may not sound amazing, but I assure you that it is an excellent bedrock on which we will build future earnings. We have learned valuable lessons, and we have adjusted our CFB game outcome investment strategy accordingly. Other commentators may tempt you with promises of wild earnings, but I assure you that these promises will NOT be fulfilled by Bobby and/or Blake. Blake, for example, began the season 2-0, but any intelligent investor will tell you that those earnings are dumb luck. 

Might I remind everyone that last season Blake incorrectly picked 42 games! Bobby incorrectly picked 53 games! This firm (Ty Sports Investments, TSI) only incorrectly picked THREE games. Go ahead and reread that, while Blake and Bobby missed DOZENS, TSI missed only three. (Previous season accuracy was Bobby 52.25%, Blake 58.41%, Ty 66.66%) 

With this short message, to you the intelligent investors, complete let’s move to the TSI recommended investments for Week 1 of the 2019 college football season.

Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Norfolk State Spartans

That’s right, another ODU line, a staple investment here at TSI.

As we learned last year, the Monarchs are a money machine. If you remember correctly TSI predicted not only ODU covering against VT, but also their outright win. This year ODU is nothing special, but NSU is predicted to be especially bad.

ODU technically has the homefield advantage, in their brand-new stadium (Their stadium wouldn’t even be a top 20 in capacity in Texas High School Football but I digress). ODU’s homefield advantage isn’t much of an advantage though, as NSU is located only five miles away and many college apartments in the area are filled with a mix of ODU and NSU students. ODU and NSU are crosstown rivals, but this is only the fourth time ever that they have met on the gridiron, with ODU leading the series, that began in 2011, 3-0.

None of that context really matters though, what matters is the line. ODU was so great at covering last season because they are able to put up points at their level. Odds Shark has the current point estimate at 33.4 to 3.2 ODU, and I agree that the final will most likely see NSU at 10 or less with ODU in the 30-40 range.

Yes it’s a big line at -27, but TSI advises taking a small position in this game for ODU. Old Dominion, -27

Boatin’ Blake: Illinois vs Akron

Between three bets in Vegas right now, over $100k is on the Illini to cover the spread on this game. This is similar to that random director at the Oscars this year that was “supposed to win” but then lost to the favorite.

Look, if you have an insider tip like this where money is being thrown at a side, you always have to take it. I know nothing about these two teams, but gotta go with the insider tip. Illinois -17

Northwestern @ #25 Stanford (Stan. -5.5)

Bobby: I have no clue how to feel about this one. Both teams are completely “blah”, but this is somehow the second best Power 5 matchup of the day. I’m going with Northwestern, strictly because it sounds like a weird thing that can happen and that badass strength coach is cool. Northwestern, +5.5

Ty: Northwestern at Stanford, ahh yes, a game that many of my clients will care about. I know that many of my clients call Northwestern and Stanford their alma mater, although most of those intelligent enough to be a part of this fund do hail from Yale, Harvard, The LSE, Warton, MIT, and HEC.

Northwestern does have a clear advantage in Alex Spanos, their strength coach. Alex is known for wearing a size small short sleeve polo shirt in all weather. That level of pure alpha energy is a clear capability that Stanford can`t match bro. Stanford who also has a strength coach, doesn`t have an alpha strength coach. SAD!

Unfortunately for Northwestern due to legal reasons Alex is not allowed to play, as obviously it wouldn’t be fair bro. Stanford has the better football team and this is obvious because they are ranked, unlike Northwestern. Money goes to Stanford here. Stanford, -5.5

Boatin’ Blake: Pat Fitzgerald is the man and somehow he has made the most irrelevant team in D1 into a team that made the BIG 10 championship. I know nothing about these two teams this year, so give me the Wildcats (stay off your phones kids or Pat Fitzgerald is going to go on another rant). Northwestern, +5.5

#16 Auburn v. #11 Oregon (AUB -3.5)

Bobby: I have no idea where to go on this one. On one end, I’m way out on Oregon and Justin Herbert on a general college football scale. I think they’ll be good for the Pac-12, but how good is that?

As for Auburn, I don’t know how to feel about true freshman Bo Nix. Opening up the season against a solid team in one of these big neutral site matchups is tough task. However, it’s a patented Gus Malzahn odd year, so if superstition is to be believed, the Tigers will win a few big games.

Ultimately, this is my chance to learn from my mistakes and observe Rule #1: don’t trust the Pac-12. I’m going Auburn in a close one. Auburn, -3.5.

Ty: This game could not be more obvious, it is a clear pick if you use TSI`s proprietary Switzer Method of Picking Games. (SMPG Strategy) Oregon is a joke of a team this year. Yeah, I know we haven’t seen them play, but everyone knows that they are a joke. Oregon being ranked at 11 is a slap in the face to anyone that has ever been estimated to be the 11th best at anything.

Auburn on the other hand is equally a joke, honestly if you aren’t OU, Ohio State, ‘Bama, Clemson, or UGA you are a joke, but I digress. Auburn is the clear winner of this game that really just boils down to alternate uniforms 24/7 vs. a guy in glasses wearing a sweater vest (Do not expect to see Gus Malzahn rocking a vest until later in the season).

The question of the clear winner is not what you the intelligent investors look for, we are here to place strategic investments on the line, again that is Auburn -3.5. Will Auburn score 3.5 more points than the Ducks, absolutely. F*** you Oregon, this is for ’06. Auburn -3.5

Boatin’ Blake: If you have listened to the first episode of The Captain’s Log (please subscribe on Anchor or Spotify), you know I am all over Auburn this game. Justin Herbert is the most overrated player in the nation and never shows up in big moments.

Also I think the SEC defense will overwhelm the PAC 12 which has shown to be horrible in out of conference games. Easy money here, give me the Tigers in Dallas. Auburn -3.5

Oklahoma State @ Oregon State [Friday] (OKST -15)

Bobby: Oregon State might be one of the worst Power 5 teams out there. They stink on ice. I get why this line is so low due to the fact Oklahoma State doesn’t have a starting quarterback named, but Mike Gundy himself could stroll out there and win with Chubba Hubbard and Tylan Wallace. Oklahoma State, -15

Ty: The battle of the oranges. You’ve got “aMeRiCa’S bRiGhTeSt OrAnGe” battling an Orange Beaver.

Everyone knows that no one really knows what Oklahoma State is going to do this year. I really hate this game because it’s the first real line of this week, and its just so hard to say what OkSt is capable of. I do think that OkSt will put up more than 15 points, but I don’t think that they will shut out Oregon State, who again is a joke.

I do believe based off of proprietary TSI research using the SMPG Strategy I can say that OkSt will most likely cover the spread here. We at TSI are cautiously optimistic that OkSt will meet point estimates this week. Money on the Pokes, but don’t take too large of a position on this one. Oklahoma State, -15

Boatin’ Blake: SPOOOOOOOOOKKKKKYYYYYYY BEEEEAVVVVER IS BACK! Not really, but in the Boatin’ Blake Bowl we get both the Spooky mascots meeting in one game. I wish I could take the Beavers in this spot, but they are soooooo bad. Sadly, give me the Pokes. Oklahoma State, -15

Indiana State @ Kansas (KU -4.5)

Bobby: Ah, the patented KU FCS game. Last year, my beloved Nicholls Colonels took out the Jayhawks in an OT thriller that was worth both months of ESPN+ that I accidentally paid for by forgetting to cancel my free trial.

However, this is a different Jayhawk team. Pooka Williams Jr. is too good for Kansas to not win and cover this one. Kansas, -4.5

Ty: Let’s be honest here, nobody cares about this game, unless you are an absolute degenerate and you feel the need to put money on every game. We’ll just run off the assumption that you are in fact a degenerate, which no esteemed investor in TSI is, but we can pretend.

What would we do for this game? LOCK THE F*** OUT OF KU THAT’S WHAT!

Les Miles has awaken the four win Jayhawk team of 2019, and they will be a force to be reckoned with. A -4.5 line for a Big 12 team, coached by an offensive minded coach, against Indiana State, its that simple. Look past your preconceived notions of brand names here and assess the business.

Kansas will get at least seven more if not 10 more points than Indiana State, easily. This is a sure lock, the SMPG assures that it will be a sure thing. Look to take a large position in this game. Kansas, -4.5

Boatin’ Blake: I have Kansas winning two games this season and this is one of them. Everybody on the Les Miles hype train, but Kansas has -17 scholarship player on their squad. For Les Miles to get this program to even compete in the Big 12, it will take at least 5 years and that is maybe going 6-6. I think he can at least beat Indiana States, so I will take KU in this one. Kansas, -4.5

James Madison @ West Virginia (WVU -7)

Bobby: This line is bait either way you cut it. On one hand, surely West Virginia and Austin Kendall are good enough to beat James Madison by more than a touchdown. On the other, JMU is in the perfect situation to play spoiler here.

Give me the Mountaineers, but I don’t feel great about this being an easy win. West Virginia, -7

Ty: This is another one of those games that seems close when you simply rely on preconceived notions of what WVU will be. The typical West Virginia storyline that Bobby and Blake will sell you is that they lost their coach, graduated their quarterback, and therefore are on the decline.

All of these things are true, but they aren’t all bad things.

WVU lost Will Grier, but gained Austin Kendall, a QB who was coached for years by Lincoln Riley, and we all know what that does for a QB. Yes, many described him as mediocre, but how would you describe any college quarterback when compared to Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray? The Mountaineers have athletes and a chippy attitude that I believe will carry the day.

James Madison is nothing to worry about and even a WVU in decline should be able to put up seven more points than JMU does, especially in Morgantown. West Virginia, -7

Boatin’ Blake: How da hell is West Virginia only a 7 point favorite over an FCS team. Give me the Mountaineers because of Big 12 bias. West Virginia, -7

Nicholls @ Kansas State (KSU -23.5)

Bobby: My Colonels have returned to the Sunflower State seeking to take out the other Kansas Big 12 school. How could I not pick them? Not only is K-State infamous for underperforming against FCS teams, without Bill Snyder I don’t think they’ll be worth squat this season.

Chris Klieman has spent too much time in FCS to underestimate Nicholls enough to lose this game, but they aren’t going to be talented enough to cover. Nicholls, +23.5

Ty: This is absurd, and I refuse to entertain this line with any commentary. Nicholls, +23.5

Boatin’ Blake: Alexa, play Time to Say Goodbye. First off, RIP Bill Snyder. I think K-State will come out playing motivated because of the death of their former head coach, so I think this is an easy pick with the Wildcats. (If Bill Snyder would have coached this game I would be taking Nicholls money-line, but I do not speak ill will of the dead. That is not the Boatin’ Blake way.) Kansas State, -23.5

Louisiana Tech @ #10 Texas (UT -20.5)

Bobby: I’m not sure if I think LA Tech will cover because I hate Texas or because I legit think they are good enough to cover? I’ve gone back and forth on this for days (I picked UT on The Schooner Pod), but I just can’t get a read on this.

The Bulldogs are good enough to cover and they fit the profile of “mediocre team that gives a Tom Herman team struggles” ala Tulsa, but the Horns have a bit of motivation after Terry Bradshaw’s comments this summer.

With that being said, if you can’t muster enough motivation to get a revenge game on Maryland, I don’t think the Bradshaw comments will register a blip. UT gets a sloppy win, barely blows the cover. Louisiana Tech, +20.5

Ty: Talk about tough lines. The Big 12 seems especially susceptible to large, yet difficult lines this week. Texas is led by perennially mediocre Sam Ehlinger and Tom “cocaine on tOSU`s credit card while on a recruiting trip to a strip club” Herman, a pair that has been known to cause trouble for teams in the past.

Texas, while not on OUr level, is known nationally for offensive prowess, and I expect that to be in full view Saturday. LATech is not a team that will stop the UT offense on the ground or in the air, and I don’t see them able to string drives together against a defense that last year survived a shootout with K1. I’m going to cautiously put money on the Longhorns here just on a hunch, but I refuse to bet the clients money on a hunch. So let me do a little detailed SMPG Strategy breakdown just to walk everyone through this pick.

Pillar I: Results. They are all that matter, it doesn’t matter what scandals your program is going through, just win.

Tom Herman literally doesn’t care about anything. Ok cool, Hook ‘Em!

Pillar II: Heart. A team who believes in itself will beat a better team that is complacent.

Texas inexplicably believes that they will win the Big 12. While they will come to realize that this isn’t true, they certainly believe it Week 1 against LATech.

Pillar III: Ability to “hang half a hundred on ‘em”. Can this team win a shootout?

Texas can absolutely outgun LATech.

Pillar IV: Never bet against the Blue Blood.

Texas is absolutely a Blue Blood. 

Texas, -20.5

Boatin’ Blake: Death, taxes, and betting Texas as an underdog and fading them as a favorite. Most profitable betting strategy of all time last year and I am sticking with it until it fails. Texas sucks in openers and is looking ahead to LSU rolling into Austin next week. Vegas, give me my money now because Skip Holtz and the Bulldogs are gonna keep this one close. Louisiana Tech, +20.5

Houston @ #4 Oklahoma (OU -23.5)

Bobby: This line is WILDLY high. I get it, the promise of another fantastic Oklahoma offense paired with an improved defense sounds like a recipe for a blowout.

However, I think D’Eriq King is going to give this defense major issues. He’s a matchup nightmare for any defense, let alone a rebuilding one as bad as OU was last season.

I think the Sooners stay about two touchdowns ahead of Houston for most of the game, but King’s scoring keeps OU from pulling away. Hammer the over. Houston, +23.5

Ty: Obviously everyone has heard about this game for a while now and we’ve covered OU and Houston earlier in the week, so for me and Bobby’s detailed takes on this please reference this week’s Schooner Pod and Game Week blog.

In summary, the Sooners, led by an eager defense and the nation’s best-coached offense will do battle against old foe Dana Holgorsen and a team that upset OU in 2016.

Oklahoma is out for revenge, and revenge in Norman will be oh so sweet. Houston does have Dana though, and a QB that many are now calling a dark horse Heisman candidate.

If King wants to make a statement for the nation to pay attention there is no better team to do it against than OU. OU is a top 5 team but with an unproven historically bottom 10 defense, which is especially weak against skilled QBs.

I don’t think that King and Dana will be enough to upset the Sooners, but I do think that they can keep it within 23.5. OU takes a great W, but the money is on Houston here. Houston, +23.5

Boatin’ Blake: Bleacher Report this week posted an article about how great D’Eriq King is. Sure, he may be good but this Houston defense is even worse. In their bowl game last year, a team that bleeds people with a thousand paper cuts (Army) put up OVER 70 POINTS against this defense, who lost their three best players.

This team is going to give up a touchdown every single defensive drive, so OU is going to blow them out. Oklahoma, -23.5

Author: Bobby Howard

Owner at The Schooner Blog. Football, basketball, beer.

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